In recent developments, the United States’ 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) has become outdated due to rapid changes in the international security environment. General Dan Caine of the Joint Chiefs of Staff recently expressed concerns about Russia’s potential expansion beyond Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin declaring Russia as “the highest of all nuclear powers.” This situation demands a reassessment of the nuclear balance by Washington.
The Biden administration’s NPR aimed to emphasize arms control and nuclear non-proliferation to reduce global reliance on nuclear weapons and enhance strategic stability with China and Russia. However, US adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have integrated nuclear weapons into their diplomatic strategies. These countries have entered into various agreements that challenge existing arms control frameworks. Specifically, Russia’s withdrawal from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and doubts about extending New START highlight this shift.
US policy decisions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to perceptions that nuclear threats effectively deter American actions. President Joe Biden had previously limited US intervention options by focusing on economic sanctions rather than military involvement in Ukraine. The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported over 200 instances where Moscow threatened nuclear use between 2022-23. In October 2022, President Biden acknowledged these threats’ seriousness, suggesting a heightened risk similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Russia’s actions have prompted some allied non-nuclear states to reconsider acquiring nuclear capabilities. NATO and the European Union are exploring alternatives to the US nuclear umbrella for deterrence purposes. Additionally, Russia’s breaches of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty may influence non-nuclear states’ decisions regarding weapon acquisition.
Moscow has lowered its threshold for nuclear use through its “Fundamentals of State Policy” declaration in November 2024, potentially using such weapons if faced with critical threats to its sovereignty or territorial integrity. The annexation of Ukrainian regions like Donetsk and Crimea further complicates this dynamic.
Russia continues advancing its nuclear capabilities through collaborations with China, Iran, and North Korea. These efforts include developing new delivery systems such as hypersonic missiles like Kinzhal and Avangard while expanding their deployment outside Russian borders.
Recent legislative moves by Russia involve de-ratifying treaties like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), emphasizing its readiness for potential conflicts involving tactical or strategic forces across Europe or beyond.
In summary: “Russia’s defense policy has evolved significantly since its invasion,” integrating coercive threats into broader military strategies alongside advancements within post-Cold War alliances with countries including China & Iran.”
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