Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia has maintained its efforts to develop its Arctic region, spanning from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. The Northern Sea Route serves as a strategic connection between Russia and China, enabling both countries to collaborate on energy and shipping projects along Russia’s Arctic coastline. This cooperation also extends to military-strategic activities, which could pose significant security challenges for the United States and its allies.
China has played a supporting role in enhancing Russia’s ability to threaten NATO allies near the Barents Sea. While China does not prioritize direct engagement in this region, it has facilitated Russian force postures aimed at safeguarding Moscow’s nuclear capabilities against the US and its regional partners. These efforts include coordinated naval operations across key maritime areas such as the Barents and Norwegian Seas and the Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap, effectively linking strategic interests in both the Arctic and Baltic regions.
The report notes that increased military cooperation between Russia and China now spans across the Bering Sea region into the North Pacific, drawing Japan and South Korea into broader Arctic security considerations.
According to the report, “Russia’s China-enabled threat presents a homeland security concern to all of the US’s NATO allies in the Arctic and to its Japanese and South Korean allies in the North Pacific.” It also points out that only the United States holds interests that extend throughout the entire Arctic region—a vast area characterized by harsh weather conditions and limited population. The US currently lacks sufficient polar-capable resources but is positioned to lead joint operational planning with allies for effective deterrence and defense.
The report emphasizes: “America’s missile defenses, uncrewed systems, and submarine forces are central to deterring aggression in the Arctic and defending it if deterrence fails.” However, due to global commitments, US military assets will need support from allied nations during all phases of potential Arctic conflict.
The main threats identified from Russia in this region include:
– A credible nuclear threat targeting both US territory and allied nations.
– Expansion of submarine operations into strategically important seas.
– Increased patrols over contested claims within the Arctic Ocean.
– Coordinated naval actions connecting both Arctic-Baltic operations.
– Joint hybrid military concepts developed with China.
To address these risks, several operational recommendations are proposed:
– Enhancing early warning systems, satellite surveillance infrastructure, and space-based redundancy—especially involving Denmark, Norway, Japan, and South Korea—to strengthen multi-domain awareness.
– Developing uncrewed systems capable of penetrating Russian defenses near critical sea areas; exercises close to Russian submarine bases are recommended as a deterrent measure. Nations such as Norway, UK, and Japan could contribute significantly here.
– Establishing denser monitoring networks using ice-hardened vessels and underwater sensors; Canada, Denmark, Japan, and South Korea are identified as key partners.
– Conducting regular icebreaker patrols using commercial or military assets along disputed waters like Canada’s Northwest Passage; this would reinforce presence while defending navigation rights.
– Integrating naval operations across Arctic-Baltic-North Pacific theaters through joint force postures involving Finland, Sweden, Denmark (in Europe), Canada, South Korea, and Japan (in Asia).
– Leveraging South Korea’s shipbuilding capabilities for dual-use port infrastructure along routes where Russian-Chinese activity is increasing.
Contributors to this report include David Byrd, Bryan Clark, Shane Dennin, Zane Rivers, and Timothy A. Walton.
Security. Freedom. Prosperity.
