The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released an estimate on the fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill, projecting that it will increase budget deficits by $4.1 trillion over the fiscal years 2025 to 2034. According to the CBO, this legislation would also raise federal debt held by the public to 127 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of fiscal year 2034.
Jordan Haring, Director of Fiscal Policy, provided further analysis in a new insight regarding the law’s fiscal implications. Haring explained that some provisions in the bill are temporary and set to expire after several years. However, he noted that if ten of these temporary provisions were made permanent, “the One Big Beautiful Bill would increase budget deficits by an additional $858 billion.” He added, “Indeed, with extensions, that would bring the law’s total cost to $5 trillion, and the national debt would rise to 129 percent of GDP by the end of FY 2034.”
The CBO clarified that its projections are based on its January 2025 baseline and do not include administrative actions related to tariffs and immigration or changes in economic conditions since then. The agency emphasized that these estimates are subject to a degree of uncertainty.
