The United States and Israel have significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear weapons program and military capabilities through Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, according to an analysis published on May 29. The operations targeted the Iranian navy, air force, and key elements of its defense industrial base, resulting in fractures within the regime’s command structure that appear to affect political control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Despite these military gains, the analysis says Washington faces challenges in negotiations with Tehran due to uncertainty about who holds power in Iran and whether political representatives can enforce commitments on the IRGC. The report states that any agreement must be durable, noting that internal divisions within the regime and a history of unreliable negotiations complicate prospects for lasting peace.
The document emphasizes that securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a top priority for global economic stability. It cautions against agreements that would grant Iran residual control over this strategic chokepoint or relax sanctions without verified compliance from Tehran. Instead, it suggests resuming coalition escort operations under Project Freedom to ensure safe passage through the strait without relying on Iranian permission.
Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury are described as having disrupted Iran’s path toward nuclear weaponization but not fully dismantling its capabilities or eliminating all IRGC threats along the Gulf coast. The analysis outlines recommendations for converting battlefield success into strategic advantage: maintaining maximum pressure until threats subside, rejecting interim arrangements offering economic relief to Iran while risks remain, building stronger coalitions with European allies and Gulf partners, and communicating clearly with the American public about U.S. interests.
The conclusion asserts that as long as Iranian leaders resist compromise or continue hostile actions related to navigation or nuclear ambitions, further defensive measures—including renewed military action—should be considered. The report calls for deeper cooperation with European allies already deploying de-mining assets in support of freedom of navigation efforts.
